Monday, December 17, 2012

Foreclosure Statistics Can Be Deceiving

I read in National Mortgage that it has been 71 months since foreclosure starts were as low as they were in November 2012. According to RealtyTrac, 180,817 foreclosure starts – this includes default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions – were filed in November of 2012. This equates to roughly one in every 728 homes. However, statistics fail to recignize WHY foreclosures were low during this time. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Chase and CitiBank have all been scaling back on foreclosures and NODs. There is expected to be a huge number of filings in January and Febraury. The lenders and servicers had to absorb inventory slowly so there was a slow down for the past several months and most of 2012. You have to look at fundamentals....the number of homes with negative equity is roughly 50%..the economy is strugggling and unemployment is high..much higher than the Bureau of Labor is reporting due to its methodology. I have clients that are many months behind and they have not received an NOD or foreclosure yet. They will someday. It is inevitable. One client has not made a payment in 4+ years. Does anyone really think that he is not going to be foreclosed upon?? The bottom line is that more and more home owners are behind in their payments and that will eventually lead to more foreclosures and defaults. We cannot ignore the fundamentals when we analyze the market. It has been stated, that there are “liars, damn liars and statisticians”. Statistics can be manipulated. Both political parties do it all of the time. Ever notice that when the unemployment rates are announced, each party says that the number supports their contention?? Let’s keep our heads in this market and keep our focus on our core competency. That is MBA school 101 and it is sound advice. Work on our strengths and eliminate our weaknesses and 2013 will be a great year if we do not worry about “the market”. The market will not be here after December 21, 2012 anyway LOL LOL LOL Paddy Deighan, J.D. Ph.D

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